Five years of leasing. Here's what the data reveals.
Prepared by Triumph Property Group · June 4, 2026 · Confidential — for Rose Associates and Alpaca Real Estate
"2026 leasing volume is running 114% ahead of 2025 YTD — with a tenant base anchored by Google, Goldman Sachs, and McKinsey."
Leased rate leads. Economic occupancy follows.
Economic occ lags leased rate. Primary drivers: Blueground non-payment periods + affordable unit bad debt.
73 avg days vacant vs. 54 market. 25% velocity gap on YTD physical occupancy.
Requires absorbing all Blueground, executing Adidas corporate lease, and converting pending renewals.
40 Blueground units. Three waves. One summer to execute.
Adidas corporate deal confirmed on 13 units. 26 units already vacated; 8 re-rented to new market tenants. Every card below shows the lease expiration, notice-to-vacate date, vacate status, and re-let activity. Target: 98% occupancy by Labor Day.
Renewals, spreads, and tenant retainage.
| Month | Expirations | Vacating | Renewed | Rate | Avg Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 13 | 3 | 10 | 76.9% | $89 |
| Feb | 16 | 3 | 12 | 75.0% | $74 |
| Mar | 19 | 9 | 10 | 52.6% | $57 |
| Apr | 9 | 4 | 5 | 55.6% | $— |
| May | 11 | 4 | 7 | 63.6% | $— |
| Jun | 17 | 2 | 9 | In Progress | $— |
| Jul | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9.1% | $55 |
YTD vacate rate: 27.1% on 96 expirations (26 vacated, 54 renewed). Axel renewal rate: 49.8% vs. comp average 66.9% — gap of 17.1 points. March drove highest vacates (9) — correlated with expiration volume, not seasonal pattern.
The Axel averages 73 days vacant vs. 54 market. Preleasing 60 days prior to expiration would close this gap and recover meaningful carrying cost annually.
Concessions at 8.72% net delta vs. 3.56% market average. Concession cost is masking rent performance. Recommend phased reduction as occupancy approaches 97%+.
At 49.8% YTD vs. 66.9% market — every 10-point improvement in renewal rate saves approximately $42,000 in turn costs and lost rent annually.
Blue-chip employers. Rising incomes. Strengthening credit.
47% approval rate in 2026 reflects increasingly selective underwriting — not weaker demand.
- Google16
- Pratt Institute15
- NYU7
- Bloomberg5
- Meta4
- Spotify4
- DoorDash4
- Goldman Sachs3
- McKinsey & Company3
- Morgan Stanley3
- Capital One3
The goal: zero leases expiring November through February.
The rental market slows sharply between Thanksgiving and March — demand drops, concessions rise, and days-on-market extend. Every lease expiring in this window carries 40–60% higher leasing cost and revenue risk. The chart below shows The Axel's current expiration calendar and the recommended cure strategy: steer all renewals and new leases away from the Nov–Feb dead zone using term optimization.
| Month | Units | Revenue/mo | BG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-26 | 20 | $73,812 | 11 |
| Dec-26 | 17 | $58,528 | 1 |
| Jan-27 | 6 | $18,395 | 0 |
| Feb-27 | 7 | $18,421 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 50 | $169,156 | 12 |
All new market leases signed Jun–Sep 2026: offer 13-month terms. A lease signed July 1, 2026 on a 13-month term expires August 1, 2027 — peak season. Never offer 12-month terms to units whose natural expiration would land Nov–Feb.
25 market-rate units currently expiring Nov–Dec. For renewals: offer 14-month terms (landing Jan → Mar 2027) or 16-month (landing Mar 2028). Incentivize with $0 rent increase on 16-month vs. 3% on 12-month. Target: reduce blackout exposure from 50 to under 20 units.
11 Blueground units expire Nov 30. Begin preleasing these units immediately — August vacancy ads, September showings, October signed leases. A unit vacant Nov 1 in this market averages 55+ days to lease, meaning January occupancy at best.